Tuesday, 10 November 2015

Investment in Berlin Residential Property – The Time is Now

In a world of “cheap money” because of monetary policies by the FED (Federal Reserve System, US Central Bank) and the ECB (European Central Bank) banks are not rewarding deposits of any kind but are able to hand out money at low interest rates if the collateral security is right. Stock market speculation of any kind is one option but requires the investor’s attention and is somewhat volatile. Property is always considered a more conservative, safe and care free option especially for the long term. One of the main motivations is the relative stability of value (increase) compared to other assets. Keeping this mind-set in focus, a typical property investor will expect value development (appreciation) at least as much as on income creation (yield). There might be locations with higher yields than Berlin but there are not many places that can promise a stable outlook on value appreciation quite like this city at the moment.

Berlin residential property has become a main focal point for international property investors - for various reasons.

The Outside View

Being involved in a market (I was born and grew up in Berlin) always carries the danger of one being “blinkered” and it is important to take an outside view. As Warren Buffet said: "Don't ask your barber whether you need a haircut".Only in recent days there have been international publications on the subject and I would like to share some of them. Very interesting reading , you will find that some of the articles I am suggesting to you will quote similar sources, big property agents with a vested interest, should be taken with a pinch of salt but behind the sales talk is a big piece of truth.

Berlin Carries On As Europe’s Property Investment Star - Square Foot.com.hk

Berlin has been on a property tear in the last few years. The German capital has seen faster price growth than any other location in the country — including traditional economic and banking hubs at Munich and Frankfurt — and it has emerged as one of the best investments in Europe. Building is finally on the rise, giving international investors more opportunity to enter the market. But is the primary market the only way to go?
http://www.squarefoot.com.hk/news/709/berlin-carries-on-as-europes-property-investment-star-/

New Berliners Propel Property Prices · Handelsblatt Global Edition

As Berlin keeps attracting more young, creative people from around the world, new districts are becoming more popular – and expensive.



https://global.handelsblatt.com/edition/301/ressort/finance/article/the-new-york-of-europe
A more inquisitive but in the end confirming and not contradicting view is represented in this article:

Berlin Devises New Methods To Solve Housing Crisis - TheUrbanDeveloper.com

Berlin, Germany’s largest city is facing a housing crisis as the city’s population soars as it has become a magnet for European youth and also grapples with the effect of the continent’s migration crisis including asylum seekers from Syria and further afield.
http://www.theurbandeveloper.com/berlin-facing-houisng-crisis/

These recent examples of publications are in agreement about the reasons for the focus on Berlin Residential Property.

The Inside View

Making a career in the Berlin Property Market since 1981 in various roles and responsibilities we have seen many ups and downs but nothing quite like the current development. Today, on the 26th anniversary of the famous press conference that sent the Berlin Wall tumbling in 1989, Berlin is not seen as the center of political tension anymore but named alongside New York, Paris and London as one of the world’s prime locations, especially for young creative people.

‘The New York of Europe’ · Handelsblatt Global Edition
URL: https://global.handelsblatt.com/edition/301/ressort/finance/article/the-new-york-of-europe

There is talk of gentrification and displacement of incumbent tenants in the central districts of Berlin (Mitte, Prenzlauer Berg, Friedrichshain, Kreuzberg, Schöneberg, Wilmersdorf and Charlottenburg and in some specific parts of Neukölln and Steglitz) and political action has been taken. Mainly these are: - Capping rent rises at 15% within 3 years on existing rental contracts,
- new contracts exceeding the current rent table by not more than 10%
- and other measures to prevent costly modernizations resulting in significant rent increases in defined protected areas,
to name the important measures, some are more specific for property developers and dealers.

At the bottom line these measures don’t reduce the attractiveness of Berlin Residential Property much because the restrictions of market reality are probably more stringent: A 5% rent increase per year would be nice to have! So the political action can be rated as action taken for the next election but not causing real harm.

One of the key issues in delivering the anticipated and calculated results is the right choice of property management and instruction of the property manager. For a long time operating in a highly regulated and predominantly local or at least German Property Market many of the local property managers have no understanding of the needs and expectations of international property investors. Assumptions on both sides, property manager and investor, leads to disappointing outcomes as we have to witness again and again when called in to fix issues. (There will be separate information on this topic available shortly).

Currently, demand for residential investment properties is high and supply somewhat scarce and the outlook for investments is good. It is important to secure opportunities now. Demand for housing in Berlin is constantly growing while building permits and building activities cannot keep up with it. The demand is pushing into the peripheral regions of Berlin with unprecedented rent levels. The pressure on the housing market is intensified by the influx of refugees widely referred to as “refugee crisis”.
Conclusion

The current demand for Berlin Residential Property is in no way a “Property Bubble” as there is a sustainable growth in demand for housing and investment. Especially in times like this, opportunists are flooding the market with dubious offers and big promises. There is a need to assess the real risks and opportunities in an investment, whether apartment blocks, luxury apartment or investment apartment. Last but not least the right Property Management is key in delivering all these great prospects. Even though the current development in the property market is far removed from the situation before 1989, the knowledge of the rules and regulations then are still important factors in understanding the market now.

We are experts in supporting international investors in finding their right investment and management of it. Talk to us before you make your decision, especially when you are a long distance investor. We are your home base in the Berlin property market


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Friday, 30 October 2015

Residential Investment Opportunities and Risks in 50 German Cities


The German business journal Wirtschafts Woche has published an article "Wo Vermieter noch gut verdienen" comparing cities and regions assessing the risks and opportunities of investing in residential properties.
http://www.wiwo.de/finanzen/immobilien/wohnungsmarkt-wo-vermieter-noch-gut-verdienen/11771098.html
The article is in German and cotains a table that compares investment data for the 50 biggest German cities. The survey contains these data sets:
  • Gross starting yield
  • Average Purchase Price per m²
  • Net rent per m² per month
  • Price development
  • Price prognosis
  • Net Rent Development
  • Share of properties with more than 5% yield
  • Vacancy in %
  • Vacancy prognosis
Wirtschafts Woche comes to the conclusion that in the chase for better yields some investors are taking bigger risks, some without actual knowledge of the facts.
This table contains the above data with a color coded ranking for each criterion.


Larger View of Table
Click the table for a larger view



For property assessments of planned or existing investments feel free to contact me.


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Sunday, 25 October 2015

German Property Performance Survey – International Investors

The challenge for every provider of services is to understand what the ever changing needs of their clients are. In the Real Estate Consultancy business in Germany, the needs have changed dramatically with the arrival of more international investors on the scene. It was only after the German re-unification and a consolidation period that Germany became relevant for international investors. They soon realized that compared with other major economies, properties were largely undervalued. This was especially true for Berlin and ex East Germany. There were headlines like “In Berlin you can buy an apartment block for the price of a London parking garage space”!

As the word spread more and more private investors jumped on the plane and since about 2005 many have bought apartment blocks in Berlin, Leipzig and other places. The purchase process was foreign but most put their trust in what was considered German efficiency. The actual management of their property after the purchase, which had to deliver the promised yield, was hardly a big concern. So many investors just left the properties with the Property Management Company (PMC) of the previous owner and inherited all previously existing quarrels and issues.

Most property agents quickly adapted to the new situation and made sure their information was available in English including English speaking personnel. This was easy for them because of high commissions, significantly bigger than property management fees. PMCs did not have that luxury and could not keep up with the shift. And this is only one of the causes for friction and frustration between international investors and German PMCs, even though a very fundamental one.

Experiencing the disappointment and frustration of investors almost every day we produced a survey to find out more about the background, motivation and current issues of international investors engaged in the German Property Market. There were some expected but also some surprising results. We asked our clients, subscribers to our blog (which is this one you are reading right now) and visitors to our website www.falkenberg-solutions.com.

Here are some of the results:


About 43 % of property owners do not get their reporting in English even when the request was made. How can you monitor your property’s performance if you cannot understand what is happening? The only clear information is the bank account and that does not tell why something went wrong if this is the case and what should be done to improve things.


The burning issue for 50% of the respondents was the rent level of their property, they were not confident that it was at the optimum. This was followed by the readiness to sell. Both answers correspond with our observations in our daily business of consulting property owners regarding the performance improvement of their property.

On the second important issue the “Maintenance and repair cost” have it at 35.71 % followed by “Readiness to sell” and “Rent level” each at 21.43%. The overlap of first and second issues of the properties shows that the “Rent level” is the main concern then “Maintenance and repair cost” closely followed by “Readiness to sell”. The relatively low focus on the “Vacancy level” as first or second choice reflects the current market situation of high demand.


For the time and effort invested by the respondants we offered a free property health check and the choice of the specific health checks coresponded with the issues stated as being the most impotant ones in the survey. But then came the surprise: In order to perform the service we need some basic information about the properties. Only ca. 25% of the respondants provided the data necessary to perform the Property Health Check and were able to take measures for improvements. We can only speculate about the other 75% but our suspicion is that not even the basic data needed was readily available for them.


Next Steps

We are currently working with some of the respondents to either improve the performance of their properties and/or get them ready for sale. Some of the findings after a deeper involvement are shocking, e.g. in one case a claim of ca. 50,000 € against the PMC for not raising the rent in 50% of the apartments for eight years.


The survey is still open and if you own an apartment block in Germany we can only encourage you to participate and take advantage of the absolutely free Property Health Check we are offering. Here is the link to get started:



https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/germanproperty
The survey is now closed



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Friday, 23 October 2015

Germany City Ranking 2015: Munich 1, Berlin 2, Leipzig 3 and Frankfurt 4



The HWWI/Berenberg City Ranking 2015 is out. Some major shifts have occurred. For the first time Munich beat always first Frankfurt for No.1. Seven years ago when the first study was published Berlin was at No. 24 it has now reach No.2. No.3 is still not Frankfurt, it is Leipzig which has constantly made its way up the ladder from No.12 last year. Only then ranking at 4 is Frankfurt.

The ranking is determined by economic strength, demographic and other factors. One of the focus points for future developments is the positioning towards highly qualified workforce.

For the other positions of the 30 largest German cities please refer to the graph below and the full report in German at https://www.berenberg.de/fileadmin/user_upload/berenberg2013/Publikationen/HWWI_Staedteranking/2015-10-05_Staedteranking_ANSICHT_FINAL.PDF

HWWI-Berenberg City Ranking 2015 Summary Index
Source: https://www.berenberg.de/fileadmin/user_upload/berenberg2013/Publikationen/HWWI_Staedteranking/2015-10-05_Staedteranking_ANSICHT_FINAL.PDF


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