International Property Handbook - Trends 2017

The International Property Handbook from Deloitte’s Global Real Estate & Construction group tracks real estate capital flow, and provides a view of investment trends and key deals in the most active international markets. It reflects back on 2016 analyzing economic data and real estate investment in 21 countries around the world to provide insights on potential trends in 2017.
Key trends include:

• Overall economic outlook is stronger, and there’s a significant increase in cross-border investments, especially in Europe.
• While the total investment volume remains stable, countries with positive investment volume growth are those in which investors expect growth due to macroeconomic indicators, expectations of rental growth, and yield compression.
  
• Offices continue to be the preference for investors.
• Private and unlisted funds are the most active net investors, followed by institutional funds.
• The capital raised continues to increase and investors are exploring new alternative markets.

Download the handbook to learn about the trends in the market.

International Property Handbook - Trends 2017

EMEA Investors Intentions Survey by CBRE: Germany at No.1 again with Berlin moving up to No.2 city

INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2017

Berlin moved up to No.2

 The CBRE has arrived at these conclusions:

• Economic conditions are positive and investors have ample capital to deploy in real estate
• In EMEA, investors are planning for $475 billion in real estate investments in 2017
• For 2017, 85% of investors intend to spend at least as much as in 2016, and 40% expect to spend more
• Germany is ahead of the UK as the most attractive place to invest, as was the case in 2016, but investors are showing an increasing tendency to invest in the UK despite uncertainty over Brexit
• The Nordics enters the top three with a significant jump compared to 2016
• London retains the top spot as most popular city to invest in with an increased share, but Berlin shows the biggest increase, moving into second place
• ‘Pricing’ and ‘Availability of product’ are the biggest obstacles to investing in EMEA real estate
• Office is the most popular sector: interest in logistics has increased
• Risk appetite has increased slightly
• Income related factors such as ‘Yield relative to other asset classes’ are investor’s key motivations for investing in real estate

  The full report is available: https://researchgateway.cbre.com/PublicationListing.aspx?PUBID=6e0d802a-c164-48fd-acb3-1057547a0312 

Another interesting result is the preferred property type:

For support in property search and optimisation of property operation please visit our website http://www.berlin-portfolio.com

EMEA Investors Intentions Survey by CBRE: Germany at No.1 again with Berlin moving up to No.2 city

Trend Barometer for the Property Investment Market in Germany 2017

The EY Trend Barometer for the Property Investment Market in Germany 2017 predicts a moderate decline for the second year in a row due to lack of offers:

Demand for German real estate will remain high through 2017, led by the search for good office space in Berlin, Stuttgart, Hamburg and Munich – while in the residential sector, Frankfurt will see the strongest demand, according to the latest Real Estate Trend Barometer published at the beginning of the year by EY Real Estate.

EY partner Christian Schulz-Wulkow comments in the survey that "all the lights are still showing green in Germany", with real estate valued at between €60bn and €65 billion expected to change hands this year, still well ahead of the average of the last 10 years (€44.3 billion), but down on the €79bn seen in the peak year of 2015 and down marginally on last year.
However, the EY researchers add the proviso that much of this is dependent on the political climate, both in an election-filled year in Europe, and in the United States after the advent of Trump.
For one thing, interest rates in the US are expected to rise faster than in Europe making the US more attractive – important for Germany, given that 43% of all commercial real estate transactions last year were made by foreign investors. The EY consultants are recommending to their clients to boost their liquidity reserves, in case interest rates rise faster than expected, resources are withdrawn from the market, or tenants experience problems.
The Brexit effect is most clearly to be seen in Frankfurt, where the residential market shows little sign of cooling down. Schulz-Wulkow comments in the report that this has to do with the narrowness of the market, with the office market not quite as sensitive, given both available vacancy and the attraction of alternative centers such as Paris or Dublin.
Co-author of the study Paul von Drygalski comments that despite the danger of overheating in certain segments, the German market has lost little of its attraction for international investors. If anything, Germany is still seen as economically and politically stable, with real estate benefiting from the low interest-rate environment, which 98% of respondents viewed as unlikely to change noticeably in 2017.
Another factor causing optimism among German investors is the likely smaller transactional size expected in 2017. Here, 91% of respondents agreed this could be an advantage for German investors, as the big Asian competitors tended to focus on very large transactions – for example, the purchase of the Commerzbank Tower in Frankfurt by Samsung in 2016 for €660 million and the takeover of the BGP residential portfolio from the biggest Chinese sovereign fund CIC for €1.118 million.
Leading the drive among investors are the insurance companies and pension funds, among whom the survey found that 96% rated the German market 'attractive' or 'very attractive'. However, high demand is being met with constrained supply, meaning deal size is getting smaller. The most sought after assets are parking houses, healthcare properties, student apartments and micro apartments, in addition to the classical hotels, retail properties, offices and residential apartments. Offices and residential in the better locations are expected to get even more expensive particularly in cities like Berlin, which is still benefiting from the dynamism of its startup sector.
Germany's recent real estate boom reached its zenith in 2015, when real estate volume of €79 billion was transacted. This compares with the €13.4 billion transacted in 2009, after the onset of the financial crisis, and the €65.7 billion transacted in 2016, where the figures were flattered slightly by giant takeovers such as Blackstone's taeover of OfficeFirst and Vonovia's takeover of Convert.

In the German residential and office sector in 2016, German buyers were the dominant force. Of survey respondents, 80% expect rising prices in residential, as well as in logistics and hotels. Yields in the office segment have fallen to 3.3% in Berlin and Munich. Banks are becoming more generous in providing financing, with loans of 80 to 90% of the purchase price no longer an exception – well up from the 60% of only fairly recently.
The EY survey shows that 90% of respondents view project developers to be the likely main winners from the current market situation. Likewise, 90% believe that investors are increasingly likely in the future to secure properties via forward deals – in contrast to three or four years ago, where German institutional investors such as insurance companies shunned any involvement with project developments. Now, given the shortage of available product, investors are prepared to take on higher risk and to expand into other geographical territories that offer higher yields.
When questioned which investor groups were most likely to be on the selling side in 2017 respondents were of the majority opinion that opportunity and private equity funds along with other international funds would be among the most active sellers. They are selling for profit-taking and for portfolio optimization. According to Schulz-Wulkow, "it is now a market for exiting, with many opportunity funds having already sold."
However, with 1/3 of all respondents saying they plan no exit this year, even from individual assets, supply is likely to remain very tight for primarily insurance companies and pension funds as well as open-ended funds and family offices most looking to buy.
Adding to the shortage of supply, unrealistic price expectations and the reassessment of risk exposure are acting as brakes on transactions. EY cite the example of asbestos, which in the past would have led to the immediate break-off of discussions, but now it might be accepted at an appropriate discount. A further example of how sellers at the moment have the upper hand, the report suggests.
Respondents expect retail properties to show a sideways price tendency at best, even in fairly prime locations. 62% of respondents believe that office property will be the hottest segment and the preferred asset class, up from 49% believing that last year. Berlin property is particularly in demand, while overall residential is falling out of favor with investors, down to 28% from last year's 65%. The key reason for this is what is viewed as excessive political regulation, with 94% of respondents expecting even tighter rental constraints.

The report is in German and available at this link.

For our local support services in Germany please refer to our website www.berlin-portfolio.com

Trend Barometer for the Property Investment Market in Germany 2017

Property Management Case Studies

Anyone can decide to start a Property Management in Germany. No qualifications or permits are required. It is vital for the well being of a property investment that the owner checks all the aspects of the management frequently or as a long distance investor have someone do this on the owner's behalf.

We are always astonished about the things that can happen in a Property Management and for how long it can go unnoticed. For illustration purposes we have compiled a small selection of actual Property Management Case Studies, just the names were changed. Here are the topics currently available:

1. Regular Rent Increase Forgotten!
2. Trouble with the Re-Renting Process.
3. Property Manager with Criminal Energy.
4. No Documentation of the Building and Investments Made.

To read the details, just follow this link Property Management Case Studies. It will take you to the relevant section of our website.

Property Management Case Studies

Property Health Check - Rent Level

The health of a property is determined by many factors, from structural status of the building to financial figures like yield or profit before interest. Even the financing structure can be a subject for a health check.

However all these factors influence some key measurements or key performance indicators (KPI) that can be used as a starting point for a health check of a property.

The first and most obvious KPI every investor is looking at without any consultancy is the Rent Level. The biggest problem most international property owners will run into is access to relevant benchmark data. Without local knowledge the exercise is futile and the investor has to trust in the performance of the property manager. Most investors are reluctant to spend money on top of the property management fees so we have developed quick and low cost assessment processes to identify any possible problem areas in a property.

Rent level benchmark

The rent level benchmark compares the actual contract rent to the rent table and market rent detailed down to the size categories and prevailing standard of the majority of the units. In a second step the contract rent is compared to the actual rent payments. Major shortcomings can then be investigated and tracked down to the underlying problem, e.g. problems in the building fabric, tenant mix or plain bad management, to mention just a few possibilities.

Rent level benchmark service

In order to perform the rent level benchmark service the following information is required:

Building:	Address and photo
	Year of construction
	Type of bathroom facilities
	Type of heating
	Recent modernizations and resulting rent increases
Tenants:	Rent list with apartment sizes, contract rent amounts and rent components (names not needed)
	Actual rental payments
Property management	Introduction and contact for questions. This can improve the quality of the resulting report but is not mandatory if you don’t feel comfortable with it at this point.

This is what you can expect from this service:
An assessment of the rent level of your property compared to other comparable properties and recommendations for the next steps if necessary. The report will be provided in English as a pdf-file. This service does not include site inspections.

Pricing

The fee for this service is 49.00 € including VAT. The payment is due with the order of the service. We give a 30 day money back guarantee, should you not be satisfied with the service provided.

To contact us about this offer please use our website feedback.

Property Health Check - Rent Level

Property Health Check for Rented Apartment Blocks in Germany

In many dicussion with our clients we were asked to offer "just a quick status" and not the full service spectrum. At first we were reluctant as we felt that we would be taking a risk but then we realized that it actually is a smart approach. So we created and are still creating a set of "Health Checks" to "feel the pulse" of a property in order to identify possible problem areas to then determine with our client what could be achieved dealing with them.

The health of a property is determined by many factors, from structural status of the building to financial figures like yield or profit before interest. Even the financing structure can be a subject for a health check.
However all these factors influence some key measurements or Key Performance Indicators (KPI) that can be used as a starting point for a health check of a property. We have developed quick assessment processes to identify any possible problem areas in a property using e.g. rent level or utilities charges as KPIs and benchmark them against the market.


These are the initial services at an introductory price level:
- Rent Level Benchmark
- Utilities Charges Benchmark
- "Ready for Selling" Audit

The links will take you to the details of the individual services.

Survey

 

Help us improve your results by taking our short survey. Receive one of our Property Health Check Benchmark Services FREE (actual price 49.00 € but value could be thousands).   

Click to take the survey and claim your reward

Property Health Check for Rented Apartment Blocks in Germany

Yield vs. Multiplyer (Faktor) and how to Monitor your Property Manager

In this short article I will define the difference between the terms "Faktor" and yield in Property investment in Germany and how you can use the Faktor as a tool to manage your property management and monitor the value development of your property without having to get an expensive valuation.

Receiving property offers from Germany you most likely will come across the term "Faktor" meaning multiplier. It describes the rental income of a property (net rent without ancillary cost like heating) through the purchase price divided by the annual net rent. 

 purchase price
annual net rent

Often you will also get the figure for "Rendite" which is a percentage figure and the word for yield. However this term can lead to misunderstandings between parties: Is it calculated before or after purchase cost like property sales tax, is it before or after property management charges etc.? The definition should always be clarified before discussions.

An active property management will have to look to raising the rent in an appropriate way which is legally sound and does not scare away the tenants you want to keep. One of the mostly used references are rent tables which are published by local authorities for big cities. If your property manager is not keeping the rent for your property at least at the level of the rent table they are throwing away your money. Most likely they will come up with lots of reasons why it is hard to get the rent you could expect according to the rent table. If the reasons are based on the state of the property the reasons need addressing. Otherwise you can show the damage the property manager is causing using the "Faktor" mathematics. An example:

• A 100 m² apartment is rented for 5.50 €/m² per month.
• The rent table states an average for the building age and location of 6.50 €/m².
• The "Faktor" when you bought the building was say 18.
• The "damage" caused by the property manager is calculated as the difference between the actual rent and the table rent 1.00 €/m² times the rental area 100 m² times 12 months = 1,200 € -- quite a figure already. But to arrive at the value you multiply this annual figure by the "Faktor" and arrive at a damage of 21,600 € just from 1.00 €/m² in one apartment.

If you were to sell your property now you could get 21,600 € more without any discussion or any investment while it certainly would be nice to have the monthly income in the first place. These facts will change your position in the discussions with your property manager
The view above is on existing rental contracts only. For new rentals the impact of underselling by the management company can be much greater. In our experience the new rental price is determined by the rental agent the property management is "associated" with. The driver of this process is usually more for an easy rent and a quick commission rather than the best result for the owner.

This "Faktor" method also allows you to assess easily the likely market value of your property by applying the "Faktor" and the annual net rent.This will give you an idea if your location value has not changed significantly, e.g. closing of an airport nearby or major improvement or decay of your property itself.

I have shown how the "Faktor" compares to yield and how it is calculated. Furthermore I have shown how it can be utilized to monitor the performance of your property manager as well as the value development of your property. However "the devil is in the detail", you still need to get all the information and it would most likely be more reliable if you don't have to ask you property manager for it, only the actual figures need to come from him.

Reserve your seat

We will shortly run a webinar on how to get your information from the Berlin Rent Table even without knowledge of the German language. If you subscribe to this blog at the bottom of the right hand column of this page you will not miss the announcement, you will not receive any other mail from us other than the blog updates, unless you sign up for one of our mailing lists.



For support in the assessment of the performance of your property and your property manager please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .
Uwe Falkenberg

Yield vs. Multiplyer (Faktor) and how to Monitor your Property Manager

Ifo - German Business Climate Index January 2012 shows third rise in a row

Every month the responses of over 7000 businesses to the Ifo Business Survey, the confidence indicator frequently referred to as the Ifo Index is published. The January 2012 results show the 3rd rise in a row.

Ifo Business Climate Continues to Rise
Results of the January 2012 Ifo Business Survey

The Ifo Business Climate for trade and industry in Germany improved for the third time in succession in January. Although companies assess the current business situation as less favourable than in December, their business expectations have brightened considerably. The German economy has started the year positively.

The business climate improved in manufacturing. Manufacturers see their current business situation as slightly improved and their business outlook as clearly more favourable than in the previous month. Export expectations and personnel planning are also somewhat more positive once again. Capacity utilization in manufacturing is currently slightly lower than in autumn 2011. However, use of equipment and machinery remains above average.

In retailing the business climate index fell. The business situation here is no longer as favourable as it was in December. Moreover, retailers are more sceptical about their short-term business outlook. In wholesaling the business climate deteriorated slightly. The wholesalers surveyed continue to assess their current business situation as very positive, but less favourable than last month. Their business expectations are once again slightly more confident.

The business climate in construction improved for the third month in succession. The current business situation, however, is no longer as favourable as in the previous month. The constructors surveyed are nevertheless significantly more confident about their six-month business outlook.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

View the Full Report here.

For support in the identification of the right real estate investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

Uwe Falkenberg

Ifo - German Business Climate Index January 2012 shows third rise in a row