Germany House Prices 2013 in International and Historical Perspective

The economic research institution of Deutsche Bank DB Research has published their results on current property prices in Germany. Here is the translated content:

Germany house prices in international and historical perspective. 

With the rise of the German house prices concerns have increased that a housing boom has begun, which could end up with noticeable negative impact on the German economy. Our analysis of house price cycles in OECD countries shows that the current price increase in Germany, compared with past climbs, are moderate. Compared with other OECD countries, Germany shows even well below-average prices. We expect that the increase in real estate prices will continue in Germany, but the formation of a bubble is unlikely and the price increases are the normalization of the total housing market.

The development in different areas are obviously different. Munich and Hamburg are closer to a possible "bubble" than e.g. Berlin which is still highly undervalued compared to other European capitals like Warsaw and Budapest, not to mention Paris or London.

For support in the identification of the right investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities. We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service) Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .
Uwe Falkenberg 

Germany House Prices 2013 in International and Historical Perspective

Sharp Rise in German Business Climate Index

The Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade rose significantly by over three points in February. This represents its greatest increase since July 2010. Satisfaction with the current business situation continued to grow. Survey participants also expressed greater optimism about their future business perspectives. The German economy is regaining momentum.

In manufacturing the business climate indicator rose sharply. This was specifically due to a considerably more optimistic business outlook. Manufacturers also expressed greater satisfaction with their current business situation. Export expectations increased and are now above their long-term average once again.
In wholesaling the business climate also improved clearly after deteriorating last month. Wholesalers are more satisfied with their current business situation and less pessimistic about future business developments. In retailing, on the other hand, the business climate remained unchanged. Assessments of the current business situation were more positive than last month, but retailers were slightly more sceptical about their future business developments.
In construction the business climate index continued to rise sharply, primarily due to a far more optimistic business outlook. The business outlook reached its highest level since German reunification. Satisfaction with the current business situation also continued to grow.
Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Press Release with details click here.

"The fact that the German economy suffered a setback towards the end of 2012. As the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) already reported in its first release of 14 February 2013, the gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 0.6% - upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment - in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared with the previous quarter. The result for the entire year of 2012 remained unchanged at +0.7% (calendar-adjusted: +0.9%)." (Source: Destatis Press release)

Despite this setback all indicators point to a strong recovery of the German Economy as stated by the German Chamber of Commerce and other sources. The property market has seen price increases on all fronts including rent.

For more information keep visiting this blog or sign up for updates. For information on the German Property Market visit www.berlin-portfolio.com.

Sharp Rise in German Business Climate Index

Ifo Business Climate Continues to Deteriorate for the sixth consecutive month

The Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade fell in October for the sixth time in succession. Companies again expressed growing dissatisfaction with their current business situation. The business outlook nevertheless remained unchanged at last month’s low level. The clouds over the German economy are darkening.

In manufacturing last month’s deterioration in the business climate continued in October. Assessments of the current business situation were significantly poorer and now approximately correspond to the long-term average value. Business expectations recovered slightly for the first time in six months and are less pessimistic. According to manufacturers’ reports capacity utilization rates were considerably lower than in the previous quarter. This marks the third drop in succession.
After staging a recovery last month, the business climate index in both retailing and wholesaling dropped this month. The retailers surveyed were much more satisfied with their current business situation, but expressed far greater pessimism about their six-month business outlook. Wholesalers reported slightly improved expectations, but their assessments of the current business situation cooled down significantly.
In construction the business climate indicator fell further. Although the construction companies surveyed expressed less pessimism about their six-month business outlook, they were far less satisfied with their current business situation.
Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Expo Real 2012, the international real estate conference at the beginning of October in Munich has shown that the demand for property investment opportunities in Germany however is unwavering. The yields are under pressure due to the international influx of investors. Especially properties in Berlin are in high demand because of the relative undervaluation compared to other European capitals and the recent rent increases.

Uwe Falkenberg, owner of
Falkenberg Solutions
Real Estate Consultants

Ifo Business Climate Continues to Deteriorate for the sixth consecutive month

Germany September 2012 Ifo Business Climate Index Continues to Fall

The Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade continued to fall in September, marking its fifth successive decline. The companies surveyed are again less satisfied with their current business situation. They also expressed greater pessimism about the future. The curbing forces on the German economy continue to prevail.

After recovering briefly last month, the business climate in manufacturing continued to cool significantly in September. Although survey participants were more cautious in their assessment of the current business situation, it remained clearly above the long-term average value. Expectations concerning the six-month business outlook remained clearly negative and dropped for the fifth month in succession. In terms of the outlook for exports, last month’s slightly negative trend continued.

The business climate recovered at both levels of trade. Companies in retailing reported an improved
business situation, while their expectations were only marginally more pessimistic. The same, but even more pronounced trends were seen in wholesaling. The wholesalers surveyed are far more satisfied with their current business situation than last month, but the six-month business outlook continued to cloud over.

In construction the business climate indicator fell again. Assessments of the current business situation
are less positive than last month. Moreover, the construction companies surveyed are more pessimistic about their six-month business outlook.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Apartment Block in Berlin

The demand for property investment opportunities in Germany however is unwavering. The yields are under pressure due to the international influx of investors. Especially properties in Berlin are in high demand because of the relative undervaluation compared to other European capitals and the recent rent increases.



Uwe Falkenberg, owner of
Falkenberg Solutions
Real Estate Consultants

Germany September 2012 Ifo Business Climate Index Continues to Fall

Ifo Business Climate Index Falls Sharply in May 2012

Results of the May 2012 Ifo Business Survey

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany fell significantly in May. Assessments of the current business situation deteriorated clearly. The business outlook nevertheless remains above the long-term average. Companies also expressed greater pessimism about their business outlook. The recent surge in uncertainty in the Eurozone is impacting the German economy.
The business climate index in manufacturing dropped sharply. This is primarily due to much poorer assessments of the current business situation. As far as the six-month business outlook is concerned, positive and negative expectations roughly balance each other out. The majority of manufacturers reported defensive recruitment plans for the first time in months. However, they expect further stimulus from exports.

The business climate clouded over significantly at both levels of trade. Assessments of the current business situation slumped in retailing and the majority of expectations are pessimistic. In wholesaling the downturn was relatively small. The wholesalers surveyed saw deterioration in their current business situation and are less optimistic about their six-month business outlook.
The business climate indicator also dropped in construction. While the current business situation showed a slight improvement, the constructors surveyed were less optimistic about future business developments.
Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

For detailed results click here.

For support in the identification of the right real estate investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

Uwe Falkenberg

Ifo Business Climate Index Falls Sharply in May 2012

German Economy Returned to Growth in the First Quarter

Economic Newsflash

 The German economy returned to growth in the first quarter. Gross domestic product  (GDP) rose seasonally adjusted by 0.5% from the previous quarter Q4 2011. The figure was higher than the 0.1% experts had estimated, according to a report by Barclays Capital. Compared with first-quarter 2011, the German economy rose 1.7%, the Federal Statistics Office reported on Tuesday. In the fourth quarter 2011, German GDP had declined 0.2% from the third period, its first drop since 2009. Europes biggest economy is more robust again mainly supported once again by exports but also private sector spending.

Supported by the economic development the German Property Market remains a top destination for International Investors.

German Economy Returned to Growth in the First Quarter

Unemployment in Germany below 3 Million again

The unemployment figure for Germany went below 3 Million again to where is was last December. The rate is now at 7.0% after 7.2% in March 2012.

The head of the unemployment agency is quoted "The positive basic trend in the labour market is still there but has lost some of its momentum."

The decline is partially caused by seasonal effects. With these neutralised the unemployment actually rose by 19,000 but even then the standardised unemployment rate without seasonal effects for April 2012 is now set at 6.8%.

Germany remains the big exception in the European Labour Market.

Unemployment in Germany below 3 Million again

High petrol prices are affecting the consumer

Findings of the GfK consumer climate study for Germany for April 2012

Consumer sentiment in Germany was divided in April. While the overall economic outlook was viewed more optimistically, the high level of income expectations dropped slightly, and willingness to buy saw significant losses. Following a revised value of 5.8 points in April, the overall indicator is forecasting a value of 5.6 points for May.


Consumers are evidently coming to the realization that a recession in Germany can be prevented, and the forces which boost the domestic economy are increasingly gaining the upper hand. As a result, the economic expectations have risen for the second time in a row. In contrast to this, increasing concerns about inflation are weakening consumer optimism, as shown by the decrease in willingness to buy. Consumers see their buying power as being primarily affected by the increase in energy prices. This is shown by the slight drop in income expectations.

GfK SE, Corporate Communications

Nordwestring 101
90419 Nuremberg

Full GfK Press Release .

Once again Germany and especially Berlin has become a prime investment target for Investment in the German Property Market by Private Investors and Property Funds. Property Financing has become more readily available again but much more restrictive than during the last investment cycle 2005 to 2008.

This development is supported by a constant flow of positive news from the German economy which is also provided in this blog.

Uwe Falkenberg

High petrol prices are affecting the consumer

April 2012 Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany still on the Rise

Results of the April 2012 Ifo Business Survey

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany rose once more in April. Companies’ assessment of their current business situation improved somewhat on a high level, while their six-month business outlook remained unchanged from last month. The German economy is proving resilient.
The business climate in manufacturing improved again on the previous month. The manufacturers surveyed see both their current business situation and their business outlook as significantly more positive. Manufacturers are increasing their capacity utilization. Their recruitment plans are slightly more conservative than last month.
The business climate developed differently at both levels of trade. While the business climate indicator increased minimally in retailing, it fell slightly in wholesaling. Climate components also developed in opposite directions. Retailers report some deterioration in their business situation and an improvement in their business outlook. A greater number of wholesalers, on the other hand, are satisfied with their current business situation, while their expectations clouded over slightly.
In construction the business climate was bleaker. The constructors surveyed report a slightly deterioration in their current business situation. They are also no longer as optimistic about their future business development as last month.
Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

For Detailed Data click here

 For support in the identification of the right real estate investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

Uwe Falkenberg

April 2012 Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany still on the Rise

German Consumer Climate Index up in January 2012

At the beginning of 2012 optimisme has returned to the German Consumer. Both the outlook on economic development and the wish to spend have increased significantly while income expectancy remains stable on a high level.

These are the main results of the lates monthly GfK (Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung) study for January 2012. While the January index value is at 5.7 it is expected to go up to 5.9 for February 2012.

This develoment supports the recent development in the rental market for Residential Property where rents have gone up significantly in 2011, especially in Berlin.

German Consumer Climate Index up in January 2012

Ifo - German Business Climate Index January 2012 shows third rise in a row

Every month the responses of over 7000 businesses to the Ifo Business Survey, the confidence indicator frequently referred to as the Ifo Index is published. The January 2012 results show the 3rd rise in a row.

Ifo Business Climate Continues to Rise
Results of the January 2012 Ifo Business Survey

The Ifo Business Climate for trade and industry in Germany improved for the third time in succession in January. Although companies assess the current business situation as less favourable than in December, their business expectations have brightened considerably. The German economy has started the year positively.

The business climate improved in manufacturing. Manufacturers see their current business situation as slightly improved and their business outlook as clearly more favourable than in the previous month. Export expectations and personnel planning are also somewhat more positive once again. Capacity utilization in manufacturing is currently slightly lower than in autumn 2011. However, use of equipment and machinery remains above average.

In retailing the business climate index fell. The business situation here is no longer as favourable as it was in December. Moreover, retailers are more sceptical about their short-term business outlook. In wholesaling the business climate deteriorated slightly. The wholesalers surveyed continue to assess their current business situation as very positive, but less favourable than last month. Their business expectations are once again slightly more confident.

The business climate in construction improved for the third month in succession. The current business situation, however, is no longer as favourable as in the previous month. The constructors surveyed are nevertheless significantly more confident about their six-month business outlook.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

View the Full Report here.

For support in the identification of the right real estate investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

Uwe Falkenberg

Ifo - German Business Climate Index January 2012 shows third rise in a row

German Business Climate Index at a Record High for June 2011

      June 2011 Ifo Business Survey

The Ifo Business Climate for German industry and trade improved in June for the first time since February. The firms have given clearly more positive assessments of their current business situation than in May. Although their business expectations are again somewhat less optimistic, the firms remain confident. The German economy is experiencing a robust upswing.

The business climate in manufacturing continues to be good. The hitherto excellent business situation of the industrial firms has improved again in June. The business expectations of the surveyed firms are once again less positive, however. They continue to expect impulses from exports but are not quite so optimistic in this regard as in past months. The industrial firms intend to be more cautious in expanding staff levels.

In retailing the current business situation continues to be good. The confidence of the retailers with regard to the business outlook has weakened considerably, however. For this reason, the business climate index in retailing has fallen. In contrast, in wholesaling the business climate index has risen noticeably. The wholesalers have given much better assessments of their current business situation. They are also more confident regarding the six-month business outlook than in May.

The business climate in the construction sector has brightened considerably. The surveyed building contractors have given more positive assessments of both the current business situation as well as the six-month business outlook than in the past month

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Details and Download: Ifo Business Climate 

The strong Economic Development in Germany supports the high interest in Property Investments in Germany in both Commercial Property as well as Residential Property Investment.

For support in the identification of the right investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

Uwe Falkenberg



 

German Business Climate Index at a Record High for June 2011

Germany: Further Improvement in the Ifo Business Climate

Results of the January 2011 Ifo Business Survey

The Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade rose further in January. The business climate has thus continued the positive development of the past year. The firms are just as satisfied with their current business as they were in December, and they have given more favourable assessments of their business prospects for the coming half year. The German economy has started the year with great vigour.
In manufacturing the business climate has clearly improved, having clouded over somewhat in the previous month. The manufacturing firms report an improved business situation and once again have given more favourable appraisals of their business outlook. Especially in exports, the survey participants see much greater opportunities. The firms have further increased the utilisation of their machines and equipment, and now capacity utilisation in manufacturing is above average. They also plan to increase the number of their staff.

The business climate in retailing and wholesaling has cooled off somewhat, following a significant improvement in both distributive sectors in December. Both retailers and wholesalers no longer assess their current business situation quite as favourably as in the past month. With regard to the six-month business outlook, their optimism has also weakened somewhat.

In construction the business climate index has risen once again. The surveyed contractors are more satisfied with their present business situation and also anticipate a clear improvement in business in the coming months.


Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

For more detailed information:
Further Improvement in the Ifo Business Climate 

For local support and research for property investments please refer to www.berlin-portfolio.com

Germany: Further Improvement in the Ifo Business Climate

Germany April 2010: Business Climate Remains Buoyant

Results of the Ifo Business Survey for April 2010

The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany improved again strongly in April. The firms are considerably more satisfied with their current business situation, this survey component having now improved strongly for the second month in succession. Also with regard to the business outlook for the coming half year, the surveyed firms are again more optimistic than before. The German economy has shifted into a higher gear.

In manufacturing the business climate index has risen once more. The manufacturing firms have again given clearly more favourable assessments of their business situation. Also with regard to their business expectations in the coming half year they are more hopeful than in the previous month. They also see better opportunities for exports. Currently, the firms are utilising their equipment and machines at a clearly stronger rate than at the beginning of the year. The capacity utilisation rate in industry is now somewhat below the long-term average. Company plans to reduce personnel are again more seldom.

The business situation has also brightened further in retailing and in wholesaling. In both distribution sectors the firms have assessed their current business situation more positively than before. They also view the six-month outlook less critically.

 

In construction the business climate index has fallen slightly after having risen four times in succession. The current business situation is assessed by the building contractors as clearly more favourable than in the previous month. However, with regard to business developments in the coming six months they are not quite as optimistic as they were in March. 

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

 

Oecd Economic Survey: Germany 1992-1993 (O E C D Economic Surveys Germany)

For support in the identification of the right investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.


We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)


Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .


Uwe Falkenberg 

Germany April 2010: Business Climate Remains Buoyant

German Business Climate March 2010 Much Brighter

Results of the March 2010 Ifo Business Survey

The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany has strongly improved in March. The firms have assessed especially their current business situation as significantly more favourable. In addition, their business expectations regarding the coming six months are somewhat more confident than in February. The brightening of the business climate is evident in all surveyed economic sectors. Spring has now too arrived in the German economy.

In manufacturing the business climate is clearly more friendly than in the previous month. The manufacturing firms have reported a considerably more favourable business situation. With regard to the six-month business outlook their confidence is nearly unchanged. They view their opportunities for exports just as promising as in February. Fewer manufacturing firms intend to reduce the employment than in the previous month.

In construction and in wholesaling the business climate index has risen. In both sectors the firms have assessed their current business situation more favourably than in February, and they are also less sceptical in terms of the six-month business outlook.

In retailing the business situation has improved considerably. Both the current business situation as well as the business outlook have been assessed by the survey participants considerably more favourable than in the previous month. The business climate index in retailing has now made up for the strong setback reported in February.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Full Survey with graphs here

German Business Trends

For support in the identification of the right investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

Uwe Falkenberg

Understanding American and German Business Cultures 

German Business Climate March 2010 Much Brighter

October 2009: Ifo Business Climate Index Slightly Improved Again

Results of the October 2009 Ifo Business Survey

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany has risen further in October. The surveyed firms are slightly less dissatisfied with their current business situation than in September. They have again given more favourable appraisals of the business outlook for the coming six months. The economic recovery continues hesitantly.

In manufacturing the business climate is not quite as poor as it was in the previous month. The continuingly unfavourable business situation for manufacturers has improved slightly. With regard to the six-month business outlook, the survey participants are more confident than in September. Despite the appreciation of the euro, the firms see improved export opportunities. They are utilising their production capacities at a slightly higher pace than in the summer, although the utilisation rate is still far below average. The firms are planning to slow down the pace of staff reductions somewhat.

In wholesaling the business climate index has risen further. The survey participants report a clearly improved business situation in comparison to the previous month. Their appraisal of the business outlook is somewhat more critical, however. Retailers are more dissatisfied with their current business situation. They are also more sceptical regarding the six-month business outlook than in September. As a result, the business climate in retailing has worsened.

In construction the business climate remains largely unchanged. The firms are slightly more dissatisfied with their current business situation but have given more favourable assessments of their business outlook than in the previous month.

Hans-Werner Sinn President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

For details and graphs there is a pdf download available, click here.

For support in the identification of the right investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

Uwe Falkenberg

October 2009: Ifo Business Climate Index Slightly Improved Again

A confident start to autumn in Germany

Findings of the GfK consumer climate study for September 2009

Nuremberg, September 25, 2009 – The upward trend in the consumer climate in Germany is continuing at the beginning of autumn. Economic and income expectations are increasing and the propensity to buy has once again improved on its good level. The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 4.3 points for October 2009, following a revised value of 3.8 points in September.

Over the past few weeks there have been a growing number of reports claiming that the economic decline is less severe than was feared several months ago. Consequently, the future outlook of consumers is becoming increasingly optimistic, with economic expectations rising for the sixth time in a row. In addition, the calm price climate and lack of inflation is ensuring that purchasing power is strengthening. Income expectations and the propensity to buy are therefore continuing their upward trend. The fact that the feared slump on the labor market has so far not materialized is also supporting the positive mood.
Economic expectations: upward trend consolidated

In autumn this year, the economic expectations of Germans are continuing their climb from the recessionary low at the beginning of 2009. The indicator has even recorded a double-digit increase of 10.9 points in September. Currently standing at 3.4 points, the indicator has therefore passed the zero mark – representing the long-term average value – for the first time since June 2008.

Consumer perceptions are evidently being increasingly shaped by the recognition that the "worst” is behind them and they can now look to the future with greater optimism. The third wave of a survey carried out by GfK- Nürnberg e.V. (the GfK Association) at the end of August/beginning of September this year produced very similar findings. Here too, the number of those stating that the crisis has yet to bottom out has fallen significantly over three months. Accordingly, the number of those who believe the worst of the recession has already been passed has increased. This is confirmed by the fact that a series of economic forecasts for this year have been revised upwards in the past few weeks. In addition, experts now assume that the labor market will suffer a less dramatic slump than was feared a few months ago. Employers are also assessing economic development in Germany more positively. This is demonstrated by the Ifo Business Climate Index, which rose slightly in September for the sixth time consecutively.
Income expectations: still on the ascent

The income expectations of consumers have recorded a fourth consecutive increase in September. Following another considerable rise, this time of 7.2 points, the indicator now stands at 16 points. A higher figure has not been recorded since July 2007.

In addition to the measures from the German economic stimulus package II, which have provided relief for private households, the currently very low level of inflation is having a particularly positive effect on consumers’ income expectations. As a result of stable or even falling prices, many consumers are experiencing higher purchasing power and have more money in their pockets. This positive situation is currently still suppressing any fears over job losses related to the threat of rising unemployment.
Propensity to buy: good level improves again

Despite its already good level, the propensity to buy has once again increased in September. The indicator has climbed 5.4 points to stand at 36.5 points, and compared with the previous year, a rise of just under 50 points has even been recorded.

The fact that consumers’ price expectations remain at a historically low level is supporting the propensity to consume. This correlation between price development and the propensity to buy has been observed time and again in the past. If there is a clear downward trend in inflation expectations, this has a stimulating effect on the propensity to buy. The amazingly robust labor market, which is still benefiting from the far-reaching short-time working regulations, is probably also currently providing additional support.
Consumer climate: continues to climb

The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 4.3 points for October, following a revised value of 3.8 points in September. The consumer climate is therefore continuing to improve. However, in a long-term comparison, the level of the indicator is comparatively low. The average value since German reunification is 9 points, which is markedly higher than the current level.

Private consumption therefore remains the major source of support for the German economy this year, since investments and exports will record a big loss for 2009. However, the further development of the labor market will be decisive in terms of whether domestic demand can continue to fulfill this supportive function. Should the number of unemployed people rise sharply in the coming months, this will adversely affect consumers and weaken the consumer climate.
The survey

These findings are extracts from the "GfK consumer climate MAXX survey”, which is based on around 2,000 consumer interviews conducted each month on behalf of the EU Commission. The report contains charts, forecasts and a detailed commentary regarding the indicators. In addition, the report includes information on proposed consumer spending in 20 different areas of the consumer goods and services markets. The GfK consumer climate survey has been conducted since 1980.

The next publication date will be on October 26, 2009.

Further information: Rolf Bürkl, tel. + 49 911 395-3056, rolf.buerkl@gfk.com
The GfK Group

The GfK Group offers the fundamental knowledge that industry, retailers, services companies and the media need to make market decisions. It offers a comprehensive range of information and consultancy services in the three business sectors of Custom Research, Retail and Technology and Media. The no. 4 market research organization worldwide operates in more than 100 countries and employs over 10,000 staff. In 2008, the GfK Group’s sales amounted to EUR 1.2 billion. For further information, visit our website: www.gfk.com.

For a pdf Version of the report including charts please go here.

For support in the identification of the right investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

Uwe Falkenberg

A confident start to autumn in Germany

September 2009: Ifo Business Climate Index Slightly Improved Again

The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany has brightened further in September. Appraisals of the business situation and outlook have improved. However, by far the greater number of firms still assesses the business situation as poor. Only with regard to the six-month business outlook is there now nearly a balance between pessimists and optimists. In light of the catastrophic developments over the past twelve months, this is good news.

In manufacturing the business climate indicator has recovered somewhat. The manufacturing firms no longer regard their present business conditions quite so negatively as in the previous month. They also anticipate a somewhat more favourable course of business in the coming half year. With regard to exports, their scepticism has subsided. However, more firms are now planning to reduce the number of their employees.

In wholesaling and in retailing the business climate index has risen. In both distribution sectors, the survey participants are less critical regarding business developments in the coming half year. However, the wholesalers are nearly just as dissatisfied with their current business situation as in the previous month. In contrast, retailers have given slightly more favourable appraisals of their present business situation than in August, assessing it now as nearly satisfactory.

In construction the business climate has clouded over somewhat. Although the survey participants have assessed their present business similarly to that in August, with regard to business in the coming half year they are more sceptical than in the previous survey.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

For support in the identification of the right investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

Uwe Falkenberg

September 2009: Ifo Business Climate Index Slightly Improved Again

Cautious optimism for German property

Property Week.com reports 04.09.09:

Europe’s largest economy may have officially emerged from recession, but its property market is not getting carried away

Germany’s real estate sector is still coming to terms with the global financial crisis.

For one, the banks still have to wrestle with toxic legacy assets, and the government’s plans for a ‘bad bank’ have yet to be implemented.

The government also needs to continue to support Hypo Real Estate and Commerzbank. The market is awaiting a revival of Hypo, recently renamed as Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, following its nationalisation in March.

Keep it covered

But with increased issues in recent months of pfandbriefs – the covered bonds that give German banks low-cost funding – there is optimism that some liquidity will return to the market. In the second quarter of 2009, there were €35.8bn (£31bn) of issues. Although this represented a fall of 27% on the same period last year, it was a 91% increase on the first quarter of 2009, when only €18.75bn (£16bn) of bonds were issued. This has given confidence to banks such as Eurohypo, which is actively streamlining its activities.

Germany’s open-ended funds, one of the linchpins of the country’s real estate market, have also been making quiet progress.

Following a disastrous period last November, in which many barred redemptions to protect their liquidity, funds such as SEB’s Immoinvest and DEGI’s International have reopened, and others have started to take advantage of the low prices in global property investment markets.

In July, Deka ventured into Australia to purchase the 430,560 sq ft (40,000 sq m) office building at 15 William Street in Melbourne and the 236,808 sq ft (22,000 sq m) Australian Tax Office building in Perth for a combined €150m (£129m) for its ImmobilienGlobal fund.

In the same month, AXA’s Immoselect fund bought the 420,000 sq ft (39,018 sq m) Antegnate mall in the northern Italian city of Bergamo for more than €150m (£129m).

As Germans go to the polls on 27 September, they will be comforted by the fact that their economy is over the worst. This news will also provide some glimmers of hope for Angela Merkel, who looks set to be returned as chancellor.

That, in turn, may lead to more proactive government measures to assist a recovery in German real estate.

For support in the identification of the right investment targets please visit the pre acquisition section of our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

Uwe Falkenberg

Cautious optimism for German property

August 2009 German Ifo Business Climate Improved again

Ifo Business Climate Brightens Again
Results of the August 2009 Ifo Business Survey

The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany improved once again in August. For the second time in succession the firms have assessed their current business situation clearly less negatively. However, in comparison to conditions one year ago, the situation of the firms is still considerably worse at the moment. With regard to business developments in the coming half year, the survey participants are less sceptical than in July. The German economy is slowly recovering from its descent.

In manufacturing the business climate is less unfavourable than in the previous month. Some easing of the difficult business situation has occurred, according to the survey responses. Nevertheless, on the whole the firms are dissatisfied with current business, but they no longer expect a worsening in the coming half year. The manufacturing firms have also given less sceptical assessments of their export opportunities. Planned reductions of their staff levels are no longer quite so sharp. Still, their plans remained clearly geared towards cuts in employment.

The business climate in wholesaling has clearly improved. The current business situation has been assessed noticeably less sceptically by the firms than in the previous month. The wholesalers are also less reserved with regard to the six-month outlook. In retailing the business climate index has risen somewhat. Although the retailers are again slightly more dissatisfied with their current business situation, they are less pessimistic regarding business developments in the coming six months.

In construction the business climate has brightened somewhat. The survey participants have assessed their present business slightly more favourably than in the previous month. With regard to future business, their caution remains largely unchanged.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Detailed material including Graphs and Tables are available on the ifo-website.


The overall picture for the developments in Germany in July 2009 looks promising continues on in August:
Business Climate July 2009- up link
Consumer Climate July 2009 - up link
Unemployment July 2009 - lower than feared link

For support in the identification of the right investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

Uwe Falkenberg

August 2009 German Ifo Business Climate Improved again