City of Berlin Population Will Increase 7.5% by 2030

The City of Berlin has just published the population forecast up to 2030. The numbers are broken down to the level of districts; even more detailed area data will be available in February.

From 2012 to 2014 the population net increase was 135,000. For the forecast several models were used and the variant with the “middle” result was chosen as a foundation for future planning of personnel in public services, infrastructure and transportation. The higher version for the prognosis takes into account a higher number of refugees as well as a higher number of “natural” influxes because of higher economic prosperity assumptions.

One of the big unknown factors obviously is the number of immigrants and refugees. For the period 2015 – 2020 the variation is ranging from 94k to 174k.

The population development has huge impact on the Berlin Housing Market and the prognosis provides valuable information for future development of demand for apartments in general but also specifically type and location.

The main results of the prognosis based on the “middle” variant are:

• The population of Berlin (City without Brandenburg suburbs) will grow by 265,000, ca. 7.5%, to reach 3.828 M by the year 2030.
• The average age will increase to 44.3 years from 42.9 in 2014. The increase is caused by disproportional increase in “over 80s” 66% and “over 65s” by 12%.
• The active working age share of the population will rise minimally by 16,000 to reach 2.36 M with a constant number of young adults (18-25) of ca. 262k.
• The number of children under 6 will reach ca. 206k and the age group 6 to 18 will increase by 22% to reach 414k.
• The district with the highest expected population growth is Pankow (+16.0%) and the lowest rate for Tempelhof-Schöneberg (+2.6%).

Click to enlarge

The population development by district demonstrates a significant movement from the city center to the more affordable north and northeast of the city with actually negative values for Mitte, Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg and Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf.




The source of the information in German is www.stadtentwicklung.berlin.de.

The interpretation of the data made available for Property Investment and Property Management will be different based on the goals of the activity. The age bracket forecasts e.g. are most interesting for special properties like assisted housing for the elderly whereas the location data will be of interest for all types of market activities.

Detailed data for 60 city regions will be available in February 2016. If you are interested in receiving the information, you can either sign up to this blog or send me a short feedback on our website www.falkenberg-solutions.com. You can access the feedback form on the right hand side of the webpage.

City of Berlin Population Will Increase 7.5% by 2030